Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 2.872742 3.364448 3.910093 4.559822 5.311760 6.153972 7.168214
2025-11-23 2.031596 2.663869 3.442622 4.469351 5.784297 7.408589 9.563831
2025-11-30 1.618074 2.329155 3.283292 4.650094 6.549754 9.087454 12.724144
2025-12-07 1.281827 1.999410 3.035529 4.628312 7.000255 10.383696 15.553381
2025-12-14 1.040919 1.742861 2.823840 4.591256 7.385719 11.603841 18.413207
2025-12-21 0.870576 1.553637 2.668067 4.593166 7.802957 12.895791 21.523830
2025-12-28 0.803851 1.517491 2.742363 4.962413 8.838941 15.260976 26.603205
2026-01-04 0.706300 1.406955 2.669065 5.063364 9.430597 16.965356 30.802146
2026-01-11 0.626385 1.312373 2.605246 5.164495 10.025613 18.733406 35.309835
2026-01-18 0.549994 1.209512 2.507452 5.183031 10.464333 20.266731 39.570217
2026-01-25 0.478357 1.102444 2.382990 5.127601 10.748334 21.540134 43.488385
2026-02-01 0.396738 0.958517 2.160519 4.839187 10.529862 21.829693 45.556760
2026-02-08 0.340200 0.861756 2.025423 4.721368 10.661193 22.854802 49.277922
2026-02-15 0.296759 0.787307 1.927381 4.670208 10.930078 24.199697 53.838856
2026-02-22 0.276125 0.764286 1.941908 4.874085 11.783576 26.861600 61.473279
2026-03-01 0.244700 0.707373 1.866846 4.856651 12.134438 28.489657 67.083764
2026-03-08 0.216566 0.653268 1.789154 4.819700 12.432899 30.035367 72.694563
2026-03-15 0.194084 0.610006 1.731290 4.822345 12.825231 31.837350 79.096191
2026-03-22 0.190732 0.621066 1.817468 5.209353 14.220287 36.127705 91.770739
2026-03-29 0.175928 0.594963 1.798824 5.315175 14.915622 38.834234 100.985482
2026-04-05 0.162626 0.570710 1.781241 5.421125 15.625799 41.658555 110.807682
2026-04-12 0.147843 0.538552 1.735448 5.440549 16.107137 43.968289 119.612848
2026-04-19 0.132416 0.500855 1.666678 5.382499 16.367607 45.745066 127.266490